With the media seemingly trying to instil a national panic as a public response to reports on avian flu, it is well to reflect on the situation.

According to recent articles in the ‘Ecologist’ there are currently 16 known types of avian influenza, most of which remain unique to their hosts and pose no threat to our health. Since 1997, 5 ‘types’ (including H5N1) have caused small local flu outbreaks in people all of whom were closely associated with poultry flocks, but to date there is no evidence that any infection has been transmissible person to person. Contrary to many reports H5N1 is not new, the strain having been around for over 45 years and was first found in Scottish chickens in 1959, though recently its virulence may have increased. There is no evidence, as we have been encouraged to think, that migrating birds are transmitting this disease westwards, indeed the pattern of spread makes this highly unlikely. (It is pointed out that sick birds don’t fly far, dead ones not at all! ) The Ecologist encourages us to look at trade in poultry and poultry products and the illegal movement of live poultry and traded wild birds, as being more likely to be the vectors of disease movement. The Asian region is home to around seven billion chickens and Thailand is the forth largest poultry exporting nation in the world. Contrary to what we are often shown on the TV, most are intensively fed, housed and managed, a known potential for disease. All in the interests of ‘cheap food’, much of it sent to the EU. (The UK imported 44,316 tonnes of prepared chicken meat in 2004 up from 23,420 tonnes in 2000.)

No one can predict if the virus will mutate into something worse, though it is suggested that would not be a simplistic mutation, and being vaccinated against some other disease is hardly likely to protect us against this one.

So what has resulted from all the hype generated? Well the Government has managed to get rid of all its winter flu jabs (shows the public wanted them?), and stockpiled a mass of antiviral products which must please the drug companies, and will no doubt boost their profits.

Jerry

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